A view on Global eCommerce in 2026: Scale, Shifts & the Agentic Frontier

Global eCommerce is no longer the “fastest-growing corner of retail.” It is retail. The question is not whether consumers shop online, but how much, how often, and through which interfaces.

Worldwide retail eCommerce sales are expected to continue climbing steadily through 2029, with online penetration of total retail rising year by year. Insider Intelligence projects that growth may not be the double-digit surges of 2020–2021, but in absolute terms, the sector is still adding trillions of dollars annually. In other words, the headline rates are moderating, but the scale is unprecedented.

The B2B side is even more revealing. UNCTAD estimates that business e-commerce transactions across 43 countries reached $27 trillion in 2022, up 60% from 2016. These flows matter for retail because they build the infrastructure: the payments rails, the logistics networks, and the digital identity systems that also support consumer transactions. In 2026, the line between B2B and B2C is thinner than ever, with marketplaces like Alibaba and Amazon playing in both domains.

Yet what stands out is less the raw growth and more the shift in value orientation. The post-pandemic era has marked a transition from chasing scale at all costs to pursuing resilience and profitability. Investors, regulators, and boards now look as much at cash flow, sustainability, and compliance as they do at topline growth. This is why, for example, Amazon has focused on improving its retail margins through its ad business and Prime subscription ecosystem, while Alibaba has doubled down on logistics integration across Cainiao to defend against margin pressure.

Resilience also means absorbing shocks. The supply disruptions of 2020–2022 and the more recent tariff and de minimis changes in the U.S. have taught leaders that global commerce cannot rely on a single model of efficiency. Companies like Inditex (Zara) have rebalanced supply chains closer to home, while others like Target have invested in nearshoring to Mexico. These choices reflect a broader strategic shift: preparing not for uninterrupted expansion, but for continuous turbulence.

The other important dimension is consumer behavior. eCommerce is not only growing in volume; it is growing in frequency. Shoppers no longer see online as a channel for big-ticket items or seasonal buys; it is woven into weekly and even daily habits, from groceries to pharmacy orders to subscriptions. That frequency deepens dependence on digital ecosystems, making them harder to dislodge but also increasing scrutiny on performance.

So the story of eCommerce in 2026 is not just about growth; it is about scale meeting stability. Growth continues, but under new terms: more resilient supply chains, stricter regulation, higher consumer expectations, and a sharper focus on profitability. The leaders in this environment will be those who can balance scale with resilience, efficiency with compliance, and growth with trust.

When I look at the world map of eCommerce growth, two truths stand out: some categories are still punching above their weight, and certain geographies are rewriting the rules of scale.

Category Momentum 

• Social commerce / livestream-driven categories have exploded. TikTok Shop’s global GMV doubled year-over-year in H1 2025 to US $26.2 billion, with U.S. alone contributing US $5.8 billion (a 91 % YoY jump).
• Grocery & essentials continue to firm their foundations. While margins are narrower, the consumer habit has shifted; frequent purchases make grocery a basket anchor, not just an experiment.
• Beauty and personal care are also becoming powerhouse verticals in markets like India, where luxury beauty is forecasted to grow from ~$800M to $4B by 2035, driven by younger, digital-first consumers. 

Regional Growth Hotspots

• India: According to Bain, India’s e-retail segment recently hit ~US $60 billion GMV and is now among the fastest-growing markets globally.
• Southeast Asia & India lead with projections: India (22.1 % CAGR 2024–2029) and Indonesia (21.9 %) are expected to grow far faster than the global average (8.1 %). 
• China’s dominance in APAC is still stark: in 2025, China accounted for ~83 % of retail eCommerce sales in Asia-Pacific, dwarfing second-place Japan (4.5 %). 
• Cross-border trade in Southeast Asia is a rising tide: in 2025, the cross-border eCommerce market in SEA is valued at US $45.39 billion, projected to grow to ~US $76.97 billion by 2030 (CAGR ~11.14 %) 

What the Figures Tell Us

These numbers confirm:

• Growth is not uniform. The highest growth rates are in markets where eCommerce penetration is lower and infrastructure is improving.
• Social + live commerce formats are scaling rapidly: they are no longer fringe, but core engines in emerging markets.
• The size of platforms in mature markets (China especially) still overwhelms others, but regional centers of gravity are shifting as SEA and India grow faster proportionally.
• Cross-border trade remains a critical lever; companies that master fulfillment, payments, and regulation across borders will compound growth.

If I were advising a brand entering or scaling in 2026, I’d say: have one foot in your home market, and another in a high-growth corridor like SEA or India. Use category bets (beauty, social commerce) as accelerators. And plan infrastructure: logistics, payments, and compliance that anticipates cross-border flows, not just local demand.

The way commerce is organized continues to evolve. By 2026, four models dominate the conversation: marketplaces, direct-to-consumer, social commerce, and quick commerce. Each is maturing in its own way, and each presents distinct opportunities and challenges.

Marketplaces. Platforms like Amazon, Alibaba, Mercado Libre, and Shopee remain the gravitational center of eCommerce. They have evolved from transactional platforms to full ecosystems, providing advertising, logistics, payments, and increasingly AI-driven services. Amazon’s rollout of its upgraded Seller Assistant in 2025, which proactively recommends pricing adjustments, inventory decisions, and compliance actions, shows how marketplaces are embedding themselves deeper into seller operations. For brands, the challenge is managing dependency: marketplaces provide reach, but at rising costs in fees and ad spend.

Direct-to-Consumer (DTC). The DTC gold rush of the early 2020s has cooled, replaced by a more selective approach. The brands thriving today are those that use DTC to build deep relationships with their most loyal customers, gather first-party data, and experiment with new products. Nike is a strong example: its DTC business accounts for a growing share of revenue, with membership programs like NikePlus creating a seamless link between online and offline. The model is less about scale at all costs, and more about strategic control and premium positioning.

Social Commerce. This is the breakout star. TikTok Shop doubled its global GMV to $26.2 billion in the first half of 2025, with the U.S. contributing $5.8 billion. The platform has redefined discovery-driven shopping, particularly in fashion, beauty, and impulse categories. At the same time, TikTok has introduced changes such as the GMV Max campaign format, consolidating its ad offerings to prioritize commerce conversion. This reflects a clear strategic choice: to make commerce, not just content, the core of its business model. Regulatory headwinds in the U.S. remain a risk, but the scale achieved in such a short time shows social commerce is no longer an experiment.

Quick Commerce. The post-pandemic shakeout has left a leaner, more pragmatic quick-commerce sector. Companies like Getir, Gorillas, and Gopuff have either consolidated or shifted focus, while established retailers have absorbed “fast” delivery into their existing logistics networks. In markets like London or New York, 15–30 minute delivery is still available, but often as part of broader grocery or general merchandise ecosystems rather than as stand-alone players. Quick commerce is no longer the poster child of growth, but it is still an important feature where density and demand align.

Together, these models show that eCommerce in 2026 is fragmented. Growth doesn’t come from one playbook, but from mastering multiple models simultaneously, and understanding their very different economics.

Among all the forces reshaping eCommerce, none is more transformative than AI, and particularly, the rise of agentic AI.

Unlike narrow AI tools that support discrete tasks, agentic AI systems can reason, plan, and act semi-autonomously. In commerce, this means AI agents that can manage seller operations, assist customer service, or even purchase on behalf of consumers.

Amazon’s upgrade of its Seller Assistant to an agentic model in 2025 illustrates this shift. Instead of simply surfacing insights, it now suggests actions, such as raising ad spend on a fast-moving SKU or discounting slow inventory, and can execute them with seller approval. This is a step toward AI not just advising, but acting.

On the infrastructure side, AWS has been building the rails. Its Bedrock AgentCore and AI marketplace initiatives show how agentic tools are being packaged and deployed at enterprise scale. Adobe’s Agent Orchestrator is another example, enabling businesses to coordinate multiple agents across marketing, content, and commerce workflows.

Payments are adapting as well. Capgemini’s World Payments Report has highlighted the growth of digital wallets and account-to-account transactions, while pilots for agent-authorized payments are already underway. The vision is clear: consumers will soon be able to give their AI agent permission to complete purchases under predefined rules.

For retailers, agentic AI also raises the competitive stakes. Walmart has already signaled interest in building retailer-owned agents to manage service and logistics, ensuring that it retains control rather than ceding the interface to third parties. On the consumer side, AI assistants capable of shopping across platforms threaten to erode brand visibility, making machine legibility as important as human appeal. As the Financial Times noted, optimizing content for AI interfaces may become as important as SEO once was.

What this means for leaders is that AI is no longer a “supporting technology.” It is becoming the operating system of commerce itself, redefining how products are discovered, how decisions are made, and who (or what) controls the customer relationship.

Supply chains have always been the hidden backbone of eCommerce, but in 2026 they are front and center. The combination of geopolitical tension, regulatory change, and shifting consumer expectations has turned logistics and manufacturing into strategic levers rather than cost centers.

Trade resilience. The turbulence around U.S. de minimis thresholds is a case in point. Platforms like Shein and Temu, which relied heavily on duty-free shipments from China, have had to rethink their models. Reports in 2025 showed both companies experimenting with regional fulfillment centers and shifting part of their sourcing to Mexico to offset tariff risk. Traditional retailers are also hedging, with companies like Target investing in nearshoring programs to reduce reliance on Asia.

Local-flex manufacturing. Many brands are now blending centralized production with regional “flex” capacity. Nike, for instance, has experimented with localized manufacturing through its “Express Lane” program, allowing it to respond quickly to consumer trends in key markets. Smaller runs, closer to the point of sale, provide both agility and reduced exposure to disruptions.

Circular commerce. At the same time, regulation is forcing businesses to extend the life of products. The EU’s right-to-repair framework, combined with consumer expectations around sustainability, is accelerating innovation in reverse logistics. Companies like Apple have expanded their self-service repair programs, while IKEA has piloted resale and refurbishment services across Europe. These shifts turn after-sales support into both a compliance requirement and a revenue opportunity.

Sustainability as infrastructure. Patagonia remains the industry’s reference point, with its 2022 move to transfer ownership to a trust dedicated to fighting climate change. But in 2026, sustainability is no longer a differentiator, it is becoming part of the system architecture of commerce. Packaging, emissions tracking, and waste reduction are being regulated into operations, forcing companies that once treated sustainability as marketing to build it into their supply chains from the ground up.

What we’re witnessing is a convergence: supply chains are no longer only about efficiency and cost; they are about trust, resilience, and compliance. In the next decade, competitive advantage may belong as much to the companies that can manage trade shocks, nearshoring, and repair ecosystems as to those with the flashiest marketing campaigns.

If supply chains represent the unseen infrastructure of eCommerce, consumers are the uncompromising front line. By 2026, the novelty of online shopping is long gone; what remains is a set of expectations that are higher than ever.

Convenience as a baseline. McKinsey’s latest research confirms what many leaders already know: consumers now expect fast delivery, low cost, and hassle-free returns as standard. What was once a differentiator is now simply the price of entry. In categories like apparel and electronics, “buy online, return in store” is increasingly assumed, not appreciated.

Mobile as default. RetailDive’s reporting shows that pandemic-era mobile habits are now ingrained. For younger cohorts in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America, mobile-first discovery is the only norm they’ve known. This creates pressure on brands not just to optimize for mobile, but to reimagine experiences for short-form video, chat interfaces, and increasingly, AI-mediated search.

Trust and transparency. At the same time, loyalty is fragile. Data from PwC suggests that nearly one in three consumers will abandon a brand after a single bad experience. In 2026, consumers are less forgiving than ever. Delivery delays, hidden fees, or opaque return policies can trigger rapid churn. Conversely, clear communication and transparent policies are valued more than marketing gloss.

Experience as differentiation. With convenience commoditized, brands are investing in distinctive experiences. Sephora has been a leader in blending online and offline seamlessly, using its loyalty ecosystem to personalize experiences across both channels. Similarly, Nike’s integration of digital memberships into store experiences demonstrates how emotional and functional benefits must converge to maintain loyalty.

The big behavioral shift is not adoption, eCommerce is fully mainstream. Consumers no longer reward convenience; they punish its absence. In this environment, trust, transparency, and reliability are the true drivers of brand equity.

If 2025 was the year of experimentation, 2026 is the year when regulation starts to reshape the operating environment for eCommerce in very practical ways.

In Europe, the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA) are no longer abstract frameworks; they are enforced obligations. Marketplaces must verify traders (“Know Your Business Customer”), respond swiftly to illegal content, and provide transparency into algorithms. For companies that built their growth on marketplace listings, this adds friction but also levels the playing field by making accountability clearer. Meanwhile, the DMA is forcing large “gatekeepers” like Apple, Google, and Meta to open up ecosystems, potentially creating new entry points for commerce apps. Brands that once feared lock-in may find fresh room to maneuver.

At the same time, the EU’s right-to-repair rules are redefining product lifecycles. From electronics to home appliances, manufacturers will need to ensure spare parts availability and longer serviceability windows. For eCommerce, this creates opportunities for new after-sales ecosystems: marketplaces for parts, certified repair services, and even subscription models for extended care. Apple’s expansion of its self-service repair program is one concrete example of how brands are adjusting.

In the U.S., trade and tariff policies have become a direct factor in eCommerce strategy. Changes to de minimis thresholds have disrupted sellers who depended on duty-free imports for low-value shipments, particularly from China. Marketplaces such as Temu and Shein have already had to adapt pricing and logistics strategies in response. For many U.S. brands, this means diversifying sourcing, redesigning assortment strategies, and building tariff-resilient supply chains is no longer optional.

Globally, the intersection of regulation and sustainability is becoming systemic. Packaging requirements, carbon reporting, and emissions reductions are being embedded into law. What used to be a matter of brand positioning is now a cost of doing business. Patagonia has long operated with sustainability as a structural principle, but for many mainstream players, 2026 is the year when compliance frameworks force similar practices.

The overarching theme is that regulation is not just about risk management: it is actively reshaping business models. Platforms that were once optimized for speed and scale must now balance compliance and transparency, while brands that ignored repairability, traceability, or sourcing diversification will find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.

What emerges across all these changes is the realization that success in eCommerce is less about a single strategy and more about building organizational capabilities for continuous reinvention.

Amazon is a prime example. Its move to embed agentic AI into seller operations,  with Seller Assistant evolving from reactive tool to proactive actor, shows how operational systems are being redesigned to anticipate change rather than simply respond to it. The lesson isn’t that every company needs an AI assistant, but that the ability to operationalize new technologies quickly is itself a capability.

Walmart demonstrates another capability: cultural agility. By positioning itself as not only a retailer but also a technology and logistics provider, Walmart has blurred the line between merchant and infrastructure. Its investments in AI, supply chain, and advertising networks illustrate how companies are broadening their strategic surface area to remain relevant.

TikTok Shop’s explosive rise shows how critical platform fluency has become. Success isn’t just about presence on one channel but about the ability to pivot and master new ecosystems at speed. Brands that adapted quickly to TikTok’s GMV Max ad system and live shopping formats are now capturing disproportionate gains.

Beyond specific companies, several broader organizational shifts stand out:

• From projects to platforms. Companies are moving away from episodic transformation initiatives and toward building modular systems that can be continuously upgraded.
• From siloed teams to orchestrated ecosystems. Marketing, operations, data, and compliance are converging around unified consumer and product graphs.
• From human-only governance to hybrid oversight. As agentic AI becomes more embedded, leaders are creating governance structures that strike a balance between machine autonomy and human accountability.
• From growth as expansion to growth as resilience. The most competitive organizations are those that can pivot quickly when trade regimes change, when regulations tighten, or when consumer behaviors shift.

What strikes me here is that these capabilities are not checklists;  they are cultural. They require leadership that values adaptability as much as efficiency, that invests in governance as much as growth, and that builds organizations capable of thriving in ambiguity.